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  #21  
Old 16th December 2004, 10:18 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Yes Mo, I've based it on them being slow starters and missing a few regular players from this year. As I said, I'll probably review it a bit more before I settle on the ratings for R1 though.

However, I'm quite willing to predict a slight decline for Brisbane next year. I still think they'll be a top team, but I reckon St Kilda and Geelong both have a chance to pass them.

Personally, I like Port's chances of repeating and I think we both may have gone off a year early with St Kilda. I reckon it's looking good for a Port/St Kilda GF. If not possibly Port/Geelong.
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  #22  
Old 16th December 2004, 10:30 AM
Benny Benny is offline
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moeee can you give me an example.

Benny
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  #23  
Old 16th December 2004, 05:38 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Speak for yourself regarding the Saints in 2005,Sportznut.
I really thought they had what it takes this year.
I don't know if I'm being a bit harsh,but I just wonder what would have been if someone other than Grant Thomas was running the ship!
It's been brought to my attention that to get the best of a person,you need to compliment them on their good efforts.
Still remember the team photo of the Saints after their win of the Wizard Cup.Looked like they just heard of the Bali incident!
Anyway,Sportznut,I think the Saints have shot their load and will now fall back to earth.

Benny baby.You're a hard man to satisfy.
Try this!
Open up Excel.
For example,the game of Brisbane v St.Kilda.
Insert the score you think Brisbane will get into cell A1.
Insert the score you think St.Kilda will get into cell B1.
Insert the formula I mentioned into cell C1.
How hard could it be?
Any dramas please let me know,but please make an effort to try.
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  #24  
Old 16th December 2004, 06:33 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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We'll see Mo. I'm not a huge fan of Grant Thomas either, but I still think the Saints are ready to win and I like the look of Port and St Kilda for the GF.

Anyway, what did you think of the table I worked out for the ratings?
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  #25  
Old 17th December 2004, 08:15 AM
moeee moeee is offline
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Hi Sportznut.
I really didn't get into the nitty gritty fine detail of your chart.
But if you used the appropriate formula then it should be fine.
But I do find a spreadsheet program to be much more useful.
I have all those margins in my spreadsheet and I then look up the bookies prices available and input them on my spreadsheet.
Then I have another formula which compares my price to that available and computes the overlay.
And also the overlay available for any combination of games for my multi-bets.
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  #26  
Old 17th December 2004, 09:46 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Wow. Well done. But I guess in the end even with all that computer help, it's really down to us and our opinions.
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  #27  
Old 17th December 2004, 05:43 PM
Benny Benny is offline
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With the soccer. I came up with this for the ManUtd v Crystal Palace.

Man Utd 2.53
Crystal Palace 0.41

Allowing 0.5 for each goal.

2.53-0.41=2.12

Man Utd by 4 goals

Price Man Utd $1.83 %=54.64
Crystal Palace $2.20. %=45.36

I'm not sure about the draw's % or price. Can someone help?

Benny
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  #28  
Old 17th December 2004, 06:10 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Benny,

You've got those teams TOO CLOSE!!! If you wait a while, I'll work out a table for you similar to the AFL one.
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  #29  
Old 17th December 2004, 09:51 PM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Well, a bit more difficult than I thought, so that chart will have to wait a little while. Trust me though, you've got those two teams too close together. Let's just see how those ratings go first.
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  #30  
Old 19th December 2004, 06:52 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Well, let's see how those Soccer ratings have gone so far:

Birmingham City vs West Bromwich Albion (Birmingham by 2 goals) Birmingham won 4-0
Blackburn Rovers vs Everton (Everton by 1.5 goals) Draw 0-0
Bolton Wanderers vs Manchester City (Bolton by 1 goal) Man City won 1-0
Chelsea vs Norwich City (Chelsea by 4.5 goals) Chelsea won 4-0
Middlesbrough vs Aston Villa (Middlesbrough by 1.5 goals) Middlesbrough won 3-0
Tottenham Hotspur vs Southampton (Tottenham by 2 goals) Tottenham won 5-1
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace (Man. Utd by 3 goals) Man Utd won 4-2

Not too bad I guess. Perhaps we should just stick to teams rated at least 2 goals ahead.
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