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  #21  
Old 31st January 2005, 04:36 PM
Filante Filante is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
If it was me i would be backing the ************ horse that ran first by 5 legths


The only sensible response.

Duritz, the question's a bit silly because everything falls into place after you rate the winners. i.e. once you've decided whether it was an outstanding performance on the one hand or an ordinary field on the other or whatever.
The rating given to the winner dictates the ratings given to the horses finishing behind it.
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  #22  
Old 1st February 2005, 08:42 AM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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Theoretical questions are allowed to have some leeway...

The point is this. What I was trying to discover was people's thoughts on lengths beaten as opposed to margins. Basically, do people place more emphasis on one or the other or equally. Like say you were going to have a bet today in South Africa and you didn't know the horses, but you saw a two horse race where both horses had had one start in a maiden, right? Both started about 5/1 first start, one ran second beaten 5 lengths the other ran 6th beaten four lengths. Which would you consider better.

Duritz.
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  #23  
Old 1st February 2005, 08:43 AM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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What I was trying to discover was people's thoughts on lengths beaten as opposed to margins.

Sorry what I of course meant was lengths beaten as opposed to finishing positions...
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  #24  
Old 1st February 2005, 02:25 PM
DR RON DR RON is offline
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A combinatiion of both. While I think lengths beaten is a more accurate way of determing a horses performance than the finishing position, I stiill like to give some credit to horses who have run a place. Before you ask , Iam still working on how to combine the two in some sort of meaningful way.
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  #25  
Old 2nd February 2005, 05:04 PM
umrum umrum is offline
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A lot of my bets come from horses that finish close up but out of the places.
One of my best results came from Final fantasy when he won the epsom at big odds on the Kensington track. He was beaten the start before by Shogun Lodge running about 9th I think but just 2 lengths from the winner. One thing to keep in mind is sometimes horses get sucked along by the pack and finish closer than they should. An example was a horse was beaten by Northerly(early in his career) by only about 4 lengths in a Belmont midweeker. He ended up in Kalgoorlie but was an absolute crab and got beat there easily. So I would say watch the races closely to see if they get an easy run or if they get sucked laong by the pack.
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  #26  
Old 2nd February 2005, 08:45 PM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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I like crabs. They are yum.
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  #27  
Old 2nd February 2005, 10:21 PM
chris chris is offline
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Interesting to read the query about position or margin. Well, one of my major points in selections is lengths from the winner. I've done some studies on this and particularly on weekends city racing across Australia about 75% of winners either won or finished within 4 lengths of the winner at their last start. Will sometimes creep out a little whan making my final selections, but 6 lengths is my limit, but very rarely. Sure, you get the odd one to salute that has finished 9-10 lengths from the winner at its last start. But believe me they are particularly rare. Have had many huge priced winners over the years that finshed 2.5 to 3.5 lengths from the winner previously.

If I have the choice of something that finished third 5 lengths from the winner at last start or one that finished 10th beaten 3.5 lengths. You know by now which I choose.

I appreciate the "suck-along" theory and will look into that!
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  #28  
Old 4th February 2005, 11:30 AM
syllabus23 syllabus23 is offline
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Default quote,,I appreciate the "suck-along" theory and will look into that!

If you look at the Tour de France on SBS the peleton effect is incredibly significant.Those breakaway guys are inevitably overhauled by the peleton.The riders sitting off the pace are certainly getting a very easy time,expending very little energy until they unleash their finishing burst.

The riders who get too far back in the peleton simply cannot peg back the leading half dozen and will often be "dropped off".

Gai Waterhouse trains her horses to run just off the pace for this very reason.It has been a succesful method for her and I'm sure that it will continue.Anything over 1300m its well worth noting horses that consistently run their races in the leading bunch.

I dont know about you guys, but when they balance up for the run home I like to see my horses with a winning chance,not looking for miracle runs,or blocked up in midfield.Any trainer who prepares their charges to run just off the pace is worth $$$$

On the other hand if the "suck along" effect has something to do with King's Cross then I'm in the wrong forum....
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  #29  
Old 4th February 2005, 07:35 PM
Duritz Duritz is offline
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Australia's number one trainer (in terms of victories). Where do his horses ALWAYS (98% of them, OK) possie up? On the pace. Always.
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