Yeah but longterm the LOT is 20.34% for last start winners within 45 days who also won their second last start. I'm sure this could be improved with further filters to lay the selections.

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If the LOT is 20%, and you offered 10% more than the tote, what would the new LOT be?

10%

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Ah ok so it is like that.

By 10% better than tote I assume you mean say the horse is $4.00, you offer $4.40? If it were 10% better expressed as their ACTUAL percentage, then 10% more than $4.00 (which is 25%) would be $6.50 (which is 15%). Couldn't do that, b/c the odds offered would be too long. Like if a horse was $9.00 (11%) you'd have to offer 100/1 (1%).

No you'd only offer up to $4.40 on a $4.00 shot, but would not have to offer 10% in every case. So your profit would be better than estimated.

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Some, though, you may have to offer more than the 10%. I have backed horses on BFair far more than 10% above the tote.

I guess an alternative is not to attempt to lay them, but instead (assuming they are under a price of say $5.0) to back the top three or four market chances around them, basically eliminating the roughies. That'll prob. be a better way long term, don't you think?

A loss of 20% on turnover means that your total dividends represent 80 cents in the dollar, so increasing the average dividend by 10% means that your new total dividends represent 88 cents in the dollar. Therefore your new LOT is 12% of turnover.

Cheers,
QFB

QFB,

How can that be, if my LOT is 20%, and suddenly the TAB takeout rises by another 10%, then my LOT is 30% not 22%.

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Hi Chrome,

If by saying the TAB takeout rises by another 10% in your NEW example, you mean that the dividends paid out reduce by 10% (and these are NOT the same thing), then a 10% reduction in dividend payot for a punter experiencing a 20% LOT would have the effect of that punter experiencing a new LOT of 28%.

An illustration:
CURRENT OUT $100
CURRENT DIVS $80
CURRENT LOT 20%

becomes:
NEW OUT $100 (Same)
NEW DIVS $72 ($80 - 10% = $80 - $8)
NEW LOT 28%

That's the way I view it anyway.

Cheers again,
QFB

Just to confuse it further, 10% added on to a $4 shot is $4.30, not $4.40.
The horse is 3/1, add .3/1 (10%) gives you 3.3/1 or $4.30.

Pretty academic as I've managed to lay horses on Betfair less than tote price & also more than 10% longer than bookies best price.