one of pittsburgh phil's more memorable maxims was "in a field of 8 the odds of picking the winner are 7/1"
isn't it helpful coming from the world's most successful punter.

mr magic, I stand corrected.

JD is inclined to embelish the truth a little.

I agree with this comment, however preparation allowing, I feel my exotics will be built around Marienbard. Just a thought.

hi everyone! great discussion..i would just like to add my views too :smile:

Firstly, overseas horses (for eg vinnie roe) are at a large disadvantage as they are not used to the hectic pace out of the barriers in the 3200 metre distance. This usually results in the overseas horses having to settle wide and is a huge negative especially if the overseas horse has to race close to the pace.

Secondly, 59.5 kg for Vinnie Roe is quite steep in my opinion. Im sure Vinnie Roe has a big heart but i wonder how big it is to carry that weight? Personally, i would ignore most overseas horses with a hefty weight and no track experience. I believe Vinnie Roe has a chance at placing, probably running the same kind of race and position as Persian Punch last year. Bart Cummings is the one to watch as he is the Cups king...he understands the build up a horse needs, the pace at the start and how to get a horse primed up for the Melbourne Cup and finish first past the post.

Some good questions to ask yourself before deciding on who you think will win the Melbourne cup is: Who is the classiest/ champion horse of the field on recent form? Will it run out the distance? Is the track rating to the horses' liking and will it be able to get a fairly cosy run from its barrier?

What are people's thoughts? I would be very interested to hear!

Yes, the aust style of racing is difficult for most overseas runners. GTS is an exception as he is a pace marker.

At this stage, I'm ruling out every horse with more than 56.5 kgs, because history is on my side. Other than that I'll wait for the lead up races.

Paddy,
Yeah things were getting a little dull weren't they! Nothing like a lively debate just inside the parameters of the forum's behavioural rules to liven up the middle of the week.
Now down to the imports. I believe they are unfairly maligned and have in fact performed very well in the Cup since Vintage Crop's breakthrough. How are these for size and don't forget, they leave the good ones at home;
1993 - Vintage Crop WON 14/1 - 3 OS starters
1994 - no placings - 4 OS starters
1995 - Vintage Crop 3rd 8/1, Quick Ransom 4th - 3 OS starters
1996 - no placings - 3 OS starters
1997 - Harbour Dues 4th - 3 OS starters
1998 - Persian Punch 3rd 12/1, Taufan's Melody 4th ( won Caul Cup ), Yorkshire 5th - 6 OS starters
1999 - Central Park 2nd 50/1 (57.5kgs), Travelmate 5th - 4 OS starters
2000 - Arctic Owl 5th - 5 OS starters
2001 - Give The Slip 2nd, Persian Punch 3rd (57.5kgs) - 4 OS starters.
One winner and 5 placers in 9 years plus a Caulfield Cup winner. No disgrace really considering they make up only 15% of the field sizes. The trend seems to be that the horses with form up to 2 miles go okay - the 4000m plodders like Drum Taps have struggled with the speed. Better be careful wiping the 57+ horses too. Last two years two placings and Vintage Crop in 1995 had 59.
Methinks its going to be the round dozen for Bart this time though - he has that look about him again! Magical Miss Caul Cup, Benarrivo Melb Cup.

Hmmm Bart always looks the same whether he is winning or losing- like an unhappy owl!
:lol:

As to his chances for number 12... I think we haven't even seen the winner run yet this campaign, and it's not Bart's horse either.
The winner comes from New Zealand (keep it quiet, haven't backed it yet).
:grin:

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Treat your selection and staking methods not with optimism, nor with pessimism, but with realism.

This thread seems to have gone cold, Hammers!
Let's see if we can rekindle some interest.

I hear that Fred Kersley is seriously considering the Caulfield Cup for Northerly and then backing him up in the Cox Plate.

So is Northerly a chance with 58kgs for the Caulfield Cup. I suggest so. Distance, track and style of racing (to win this little beauty) much more to Northerly's liking than the Melbourne Cup.

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Ta me go maith

Greg Childs said after the Craiglee that he thought Northerly was now an ideal Cups horse.
Judging by his inabilty to get away from Le Zagaleta I think Greg and me might just be right.

I don't think you'll be seeing Northerly in any of the major handicaps this spring. Kersley would have put him past 2,000m prior to this if that was a goal. He knows that he's going to have a major slice of the prizemoney in the Plate if the horse is fit on the day. Why chance it by running him into the ground at Caulfield or Flemington??

Hey Hammers, I'm a times advocate too but the old Legal Eagles syndicate was pretty advanced for it's time, and some of their ideas still hold eg. framing your own market to sort out the overlays.