Would i be BARKING up the wrong tree ?

Would anyone have say a months data or know an easy link where i could find results, im after odds vs evens for the win, ie dutch 1,3,5,7 then 2,4,6,8 ?
I was thinking fibanaci numbers style staking plan, ran through five days on unitab site but the eyes are hurting,

Thanks
Dingo

Without having access to a database, I will hazard a guess and say that the results would be pretty much the same either way. You would return 85-90% of your money.
To use a staking system you first must have found the best value possible.

There was a similar discussion on another thread comparing taking 1,2,7,8 versus 3,4,5,6 on the dogs.
The first option won much more frequently than the latter, yet returned less to the pocket.

Odds versus Evens however will not have a difference in frequency of wins.
1 vs 8
7 vs 2
3 vs 6
5 vs 4
These numbers are all comparible and added will give you the same return.
You are not increasing your value at all.
Maybe look at backing the 4 longest price dogs in the field, dutch them and stake them.
I personally would only ever consider a staking plan for a win bet on either the 4 or the 5, as I feel they give the best value.

Somebody with a database might come along and prove me wrong though.....

yeah, i had a little input on the other thread also,
The angle i guess im looking at is that dogs run and are so eratic then why not back them in some logical way, ie odds or evens?

I will play !.
Sorry if its posted in the wrong forum, wasnt sure where it went,
Cheers
Dingoboy

yeah, i had a little input on the other thread also,
The angle i guess im looking at is that dogs run and are so eratic then why not back them in some logical way, ie odds or evens?

I will play !.
Sorry if its posted in the wrong forum, wasnt sure where it went,
Cheers
Dingoboy

Hi Dingoboy.

As a person who has worked booking dogs for 20 yrs and supply tips for certain dog sites I can help you.

Forget all about any semblance of balance between odds and evens boxes.

At all tracks boex 4,5,6 are the worst performed normally in sprinting races --i.e shorter then 600.

Over the longer distances they still aren't the best boxes due to squeezing at the start but have more time to settle and recover rather then sprint races.


Over the last few years with wider boxes the 5 draw has seen a slight improvement but it still takes a dog with a lot of class ( or ********) to win out of 4 or 6.

I firmly believe in 6 / 7 races on a 10 race program you can leave the 4 or 6 out of any calculations or betting that you do.

You need to look at tracks individually as at some tracks the 7 and 8 have woeful records as races often start on a bend and that puts them wide out from the start and especially vulnerable when dogs run off at first corner due to interferences.

If you stick to 1,2,3 you will back 60% of winners.


Hope that I may have helped you Dingoboy.


Jaffa

__________________
A sports loving Aussie willing to discuss any racing topic especially if I can help myself and others to make some money on the punt.

I would rather win 1 race in 100 and have it pay 120 -1 than win 60/100 paying an average of $1.50.

My point is that strike rate on its own is irrelevant. The whole thing is strike rate in comparison with odds paid.
How many idiots are out there that back the 1 dog because of its inside draw? This dog is ridiculously overbacked and provides no value.
Just your suggestion to stay away from boxes 4 and 6 says to me that many people think the same. For this reason they become a good betting opportunity.
Let me ask you this. If a dog started from box 4 and was paying $2.5, then I would suggest from box 1 would start at about $1.2. Would you not back it because it was coming from the 4, yet back it at $1.20 from the 1?

I would not back a dog from any box under $3.00. You have to remember if he draws 1,2 thats rated 1-2 lengths better in any ratings market then 4 or 6.


Over a year at any major, Bris, Syd, Melb, Ade track, you want to back boxes 4 & 6, you can set with me mate.

Plenty of good dogs start from these boxes and are out of business by first corner.

I haven't helped set up markets for bookies for 20 years and not know what I am talking about.

Books lose by people plonking heaps on $4 pops that start at $2.50 and win.


And not from 4 or 6. You watch any leading trainer and they want to cut their arm of if they pick out the marbles 4 or 6 in big race.

__________________
A sports loving Aussie willing to discuss any racing topic especially if I can help myself and others to make some money on the punt.

jaffa,

Have to disagree. I have bet dogs in UK and OZ for over 25 years. You have to treat each race and each dog on its merits relative to the other dogs in the race.
I have taken 6/4 plenty of dogs that were entitled to be 4/6.
An example only last Friday where I backed a dog in the last at Casino at average tote odds of $7.00 plus. It had Box 4. Its name: Who's an Express.
Best sectional time for first 50 metres in the race. Slow beginners drawn in 2 and 3. Dog 1 a railer who doesn't leave the fence. Box 5 an average beginner who runs straight for the first few strides and then wants to get off the track. This took care of the outside brigade.
After considering the above, you would have to agree that Who's an Express was boxed beautifully in the 4. On top of that, the track was greasy from the light rain and Casino is a tight grass track that suits leaders.
I had $200 on all three totes for a very nice collect. It led all the way untroubled to win like an odds on chance.
So you see, you have to treat each race on its merits and each dog's chances should be assessed relative to the other dog's habits and racing style.

I only bet on the tote nowadays as I was barred from a couple of well known online establishments. Started with a miserly $5K at a certain book and in six months had increased the bank to $57K betting around $400 per dog and having about 30 bets per week. All of a sudden my dogs started shortening up late on ALL totes. I got sick of it and rang management - their reply was that they really only want recreational punters - in other words, you are not allowed to win. I closed the account immediately and have happily bet on the tote ever since.

Interested to hear your response jaffa.

I used to bet on Metro meetings only but found "value" harder to find due to the "form" being more exposed and obvious.
A greyhound pro who impressed me on this forum mentioned he bets on Casino in NSW on a Friday afternoon. I had not thought of betting at such a "country" track but I looked at the tote pools on a Friday afternoon and was amazed at the money in the pools - must be those lads down the pub on a Friday afternoon with pay packets just received.
At Casino, the pools are over $50K for the win (three totes in total) which is big enough for me to have my $200 Win bet on all three totes without seeing my $7.00 chance shorten up to $3.00 because of my bet.
After our former forumite pointed out his delight at Casino I started "doing the form" for that track and soon figured it was a unique track indeed. Weak dogs get "pushed" over the line because the grasstrack is so tight. Do the sectionals and work out the on pace runner/s and bingo, it is money for jam.
Initially I lost over the first three meetings but not much and then everything clicked. I started backing $10 winners that looked as though they should be favourite on sectionals. I am now into my fifth month of Casino betting and I have also started doing Lismore on a Tuesday night because the same dogs seem to run at both Casino and Lismore regularly.
I am eagerly awaiting the opening of The Gardens in August as this will be a potential goldmine for those that are prepared to "do the form" properly.
There is no "holy grail" "SYSTEM" in any form of betting but I hope punters keep betting like this into the pools I bet into as it means I am always a chance of securing "overs" on my fancies.
Just looked at my stats over the last 12 months and I seem to back a lot of value winners from Box 4 and Box 6! Sorry jaffa but I have to disagree 100%.
By the way, the videos for both Casino and Lismore only cost me $70 per week in total and they are high quality videos from the clubs that include the non-tab maiden heats etc. Great value and essential.

Interesting info this,

I look at lots of dog races on fox at night now, i have moved my betting away from win and now bet on place, ods and evens, nah, it was a thought but it dosent matter with feilds of eight, i can and do get better returns with less heart attacks betting place, and as you say BJ, leaving certain boxes alone when it counts one can usually narrow a feild down to four so good chances, i love taking 1.5 for the place and let it grow slowly,
I often see the dogs in the 4,5,6 boxes getting pushed about and end up in all sorts of spots on the track, but then again sometimes they are good enough and recover from last to ping first place,

Atleast there isnt any jockeys on their backs and thats why i nolonger bet on nags, dogs for me now.
Cheers Dingo