There are two ways to assess this Testarossa.

Use the winning times to assess the class of the wins.

E.G. a 1:59.9 a Bendigo is better than a 2:03.4 at Moonee Valley (providing both runs were equal - not trapped wide, hampered etc.)

To get this information you can look at this formguide -

http://www.harness.org.au/formframe1.htm

Look at the comments in running as an aid.

I would also look at the prizemoney of the race as a guide.

A horse that led all the way, won by 5 metres and ran 2:00.0 is not as good as a horse that was three wide for the last half and won by a nose recording a time of 2:01.00.

But a lot of it is assessment on the merit of the run and quality of the opposition.

I would thoroughly recommend watching the races if you can and keeping your own black book of horses that had no luck or were trapped wide etc.

These are the value horses that often roll those odds on pops next start.

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-12-06 00:29 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Equine Investor on 2002-12-06 00:29 ]

Testarossa....
here is useful link number 2 so you can get a real grip on it- and shows why horses deliberately run 2nd and 3rd.

http://www.harness.org.au/rules/AUSTHCPR.HTM

look under both the pacers and trotters scales for best idea.

its a very useful website for harness racing and their form guides are excellent, giving you the last two years results- some of the states even provide comments on the chances of each runner in todays races.

as a general rule any horse that has been noted to have broken in its past 5 starts I will exclude from consideration unless its proven that it has the ability to overcome a bad start and still do well.Any horse that has been given a warning and is on its last chance to run truly I also exclude.

I used to use times as a guide but found it a little inconsistent - often on country tracks the same horses will have bumped into each other regularly enough for you to identify who is better regularly just by looking at the results.

The other problem with times is that these ************s only go as fast as they need to, not as fast as they can. Big difference :smile:

If you watch or listen to the races you have identified as of interest to you, you will soon get a feel for each animals real ability to take on the field when it feels like it or needs to.

Personally, I think that harness racing has the most consistency of any of the racing forms which makes it easier to sink your teeth into.

see ya
Every Topic

Testarossa,
one other point about class....
most of the horses seem to have a problem when they go quickly up the ladder and get to about C3 or C4.
There is a horse called Willing Chip who a couple of months ago qualified for my system every week. Always ran a place and for some reason the punters always ignored it - I remember one day it ran third and paid $7.50 for the place even though its record for the past 5 runs had been sometehing like 22112 - punters are mad !!!
Then it won a single race too many and went up a class and ran into a brickwall and has been hopelessly at the rear in most of its races since then.

If you look at the form guides at harness .org.au you will often see a horses form over the past two years starting with a string of wins before it suddenly goes 8-6-9-0-8- etc
and it might be a year before it runs a place again.
Of course, any horse that doesnt succumb to this is obviously VERY good and should be in your liitle book.

Being a family man I dont get a chance to watch too many of my races on Foxtel, but I nearly always listen to them on the radio and I think its important to keep track of your selections in this way.You get a better sense of it.

hope that helps...

see ya
Every Topic

Thanks EI and Every Topic , very useful information , really appreciate it.

There's a link to an excellent harness racing site at http://www.propun.com.au/links_horseracing_tips.html

Scroll down the page.

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2002-12-06 12:42 ]

every topic,

am i missing something here????....how is it they can "deliberately" run 2nd or 3rd....surely stewards would have caught up with the offenders and run them out of the game for being shonky.....

cheers,

noel

noel

Noel, never underestimate the ability of humans to lie, ********** and bend the rules to their favour.

Anyone here want to put up their hand and say they have never tried to ********** at any time in anything???
like your tax returns :smile:

there is no way on earth that every harness horse is racing to its maximum ability in every race. They run to win or run a place, for a variety of reasons.
I gave an example yesterday of a horse that lost 40 metres in a race but managed to come second by a whisker.
There is no way that horse would have won by 40 metres if it had started well. Why, because its owner wouldnt have pushed it all the way.

If you look at the form guides that we pointed to earlier in this thread you will often see comments after the horses race details - "run queried".

its human nature to manipulate a system to your benefit and I have no doubt harness racing operates in this manner.
Its obvious to me, EI seemed to suggest the same thing.

By the way,I have no problem with it because I dont bet on winners!

My experiences in life lead me to believe everything is crooked - that doesnt bother me, it just means I have to consider this in my view of something.

I hope that doesnt upset anyone :smile:

see ya
Every TOpic

I agree here....

Case 1

Ever seen a pacer you fancied give up the lead and be driven to three back the fence, when it had the speed and ability to lead all the way.

Case 2

Ever seen a pacer be pulled out three wide and sit there the whole way. It had the ability to rush up to the leaders and even get a one - one sit for the rest of the final lap, but instead just sits three wide!

Driver has two options - drop back in last place and wait for the final straight, or push forward.
When they do neither, you know somethings dodgy when there's a clear run.

I keep away from the "red hots", too many ways to get beaten!