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#1
28th October 2005, 08:10 AM
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Breeders' Cup Distaff
BELMONT PARK RACE 8
BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF Past winners of the Distaff: Won a Grade I this year Won a race at the 1 1/8 miles distance Ran a sharp last prep Ran within the last month SWEET SYMPHONY: Had a good thing going earlier this year when she won her first four career starts for trainer Bill Mott. She ran into some trouble in her latest run, a fourth-place finish in the Beldame, but did show some life finding a way to re-rally through the lane while never threatening to hit the board. If she learned anything from that race, and continues to improve she could find herself in a tussle with Ashado through the lane. 
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#2
28th October 2005, 09:45 PM
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Here is my assessment of The Distaff
For 1st No12 Sweet Symphony - Superbly bred by A.P Indy out of a Distinctive Pro mare and comes into this as another of the lightly raced improving 3yo's engaged. Prepared to forget last start when beaten 6.3 lengths by Ashado at Group 1 level as it didn't seem to close off the race in the stretch and obviously was not at the top of its game that day. Go on huge effort 2 back when bolted in by 6.2 lengths defeating Spun Sugar in the Group 1 Alabama stakes. Form references through Sis City 4th give it a big pull over In The Gold and form references through Spun Sugar 2nd put it also slightly in front of In The Gold through a Smuggler form line. On that basis at 8/1 pre-post it does seem very good value here and shapes as the one to beat if it can repeat that big win 2 starts back and turn the tables on Ashado which is very likely. For 2nd No7 Happy Ticket - Decently bred type by Anet (Phone Trick) out of a Septieme Cel mare. Very smart type who has won 10 from 12 and is consistently improving every start. 4 back stepped up to Group 3 company for the first time and blew them away at Arlington winning by 3.5 lengths in a good form race. Went into Group 1 company for the 1st time and won again 2 back at Saratoga on a muddy track in the Ballerina Stakes once again by an impressive 5.2 length margin defeating Pleasant Home and Molto Vita. Last start ran into Ashado and finished 2nd in The Beldame Stakes over 10 furlongs. Ashado got a much better run in transit that day and the track was rated fast. Happy Ticket seems to go slightly better on rain effected ground and with the prospect of a wet track and the better run in transit over the slightly shorter 9 furlong trip it is every chance of getting home over the top of Ashado here as Ashado will face much more pressure up on pace in this larger field today than it did in that last race with only 7 runners engaged. For 3rd No10 In The Gold - Decently bred by Golden Missile (A.P Indy) out of a Groovy mare. Winner 4 of 12 in short career and shapes an improving and likely type of 3yo filly. Last 4 starts have all been at Group 1 level and finally broke through last start at this track defeating Leave Me Alone and Yolanda B Too 2.2*1 lengths. Form references out of that race seem very strong with Leave Me Alone the start prior romping home by 7 lengths at Group 1 level. That form reference provides a proven line back to Happy ticket through Smuggler that suggests In The Gold in on a par with Happy Ticket or slightly better. The minor query is though the fact that it is not an absolute positive scenario that Leave Me Alone was at the top of its game when 2nd to In The Gold. All in all on that form In The Gold has every chance here on a repeat of its last start big win. For 4th No3 Ashado - Superbly bred by Saint Ballado out of a Mari's Brook mare and comes into this race as the defending champion after annexing the event last season by 1.2l when it defeated Storm Flag Flying and Stellar Jayne. It is now a 7 time Group 1 winner after winning 3 times at the highest level this season and is currently in career best form and going better than ever before so there is no reason to think it won't figure as one of the best chances in this event as it did when winning last year. Best Value Lay No2 Stellar Jayne - Well bred by Wild Rush (Wild Again) out of a Relaunch mare and is representing the all powerful Godolphin operation here with Dettori booked to ride. Comes into this as a triple Group 1 winner and has very solid claims on its best form including last start when it won The Ruffian Handicap at Group 1 level at this track 1.2*4lengths defeating Society Jayne 2nd. Form references through Society Jayne put it 1-1.5 lengths below Ashado and was also beaten 1.3 length when 3rd to Ashado in this race last year. The big factor playing in its favour here today is the booking of Dettori and if given a smart ride from the good gate could prove hard to hold out as one of the likely major players. Final Betting Assessment - Once again another likely good value betting race greets us here which seems to be the order of the day so far. Ashado is likely to be sent out a prohibitive quote as 2/1 pre-post favorite but I feel there is 3 horses capable of lowering its colors here which is enough for me to oppose it with some confidence. For 1st I have decided to lean towards the lightly raced and superbly bred improver Sweet Symphony who at 8/1 pre-post represents excellent value as it should probably be 4/1 in this field as true assessed odds. For 2nd I have included the 4yo mare Happy Ticket who at 6/1 seems slightly over the odds and should be closer to 9/2. For third and the biggest value of all three I have included In The Gold from the Zito camp and at 20/1 pre-post it is well over the odds and should be 9/2-5/1 in this field. This means we have left Ashado out of the top 3 but it has to come in for 4th but at 2/1 pre-post is well under its true price of 9/2-5/1. On assessment it is an even type of field but one must go with the value around the top 3. For those looking to lay in this race Stellar Jayne is the best value lay at 5/1 as its true price should be closer to the 10/1 mark and is also well under the odds but has much less chance that Ashado so it is the value lay. For exotic players there is very good value around boxing up the top 4 mentioned in a tri as it is hard to see that 4 horse combination missing out and it will provide some decent type of value if Ashado gets rolled which is likely.
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