While on the question of losing runs, could somebody please give me a possible losing run figure for the following, assuming betting three selections per race

20% s/r
15% s/r
13% s/r

that is if three horses with the strike rates mentioned were backed in each race what would be a possible run of outs? I can work out individual figures but am unnsure how to work out the combined figures. Thanks

Ummm.. So why not combine them and work it out?

Total strike rate of 48%. Would this not work?

I'm not sure you can do that Dr. Ron. For instance, what happens when you have 3 horses in a race that all have 100% win strike rates? Does that mean that it will be a 3 way dead heat?

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thanks bj, sometimes I cant see the forrest for the trees. I just assumed it would be more complicated than that.

silver and sand, the strike rates are for a particular selection method and not the actual win % of the horses as such.

I think you would have to add the three % figures together and then divide by 3 first and then work out The LRO for that figure for your average.
Adding the initial SR % together would be the wrong way to go I think without dividing by 3.

Where are the mathematicians here when you need them?

Average for the 3 figures is 16% so LRO is 40.

A table from Bagman:

%SR---Max Outs
10%---65
15---42
20---31
25---24
30---20
35---16
40---14
45---12
50---10
55---9
60---8
70---6
80---5
90---3

But if you are looking for a run of outs for number of races, then surely it makes no difference how many horses per race. The total strike rate is 48% and should be treated as such.

Are you suggesting that with a strike rate like that, he can expect to have 40 losses in a row?

My strike rate at the moment is 34% and my longest run of outs to date is 17, which against that list is extremely accurate.
But I think that since I have only been going for 7 months now, I can expect a much worse run.


I do understand kind of what you are trying to say Crash, but I think if that were the correct avenue, then the final figure would have to be divided by 3 again, giving an answer closer to 13.3.

As long as the three strategies were guaranteed to pick different horses then it would be acceptable to add the probabilities together and estimate your LRO based on that. However, as soon as the strategies starting picking only one or two horses per race, then the math becomes very tricky.

If it were easy to do, then it might be useful to find the S/R when all three strategies select the same horse, and work from there. This should give a pretty good "worst case scenario".

Cheers,
Chris.

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Stebbo, they are always different horses, being the first three ranked for my method.

With 3 horses per race it would be treated the same as one horse running a place.

The combined figure of 48% for the 3 horses, would have an expected run of outs of
approx. 11 of one of the 3 horses not getting up .

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Cheers.