Ok guys, I am back again with more useless ramblings.

Would you yourself begin to bet on each/if any of the following?:

SYS BETS RETURN POT% 1sts S/R
A. 245 $332 36% 51 20.82%
B. 240 $336 40% 45 18.75%
C. 291 $376 29% 43 14.78%
D. 80 $117 46% 24 30.00%
E. 160 $242 51% 48 30.00%

Most of those systems used the same filters which deleted approx. 100 bets,
that returned approx. 80-120 units.

I cannot find anywhere on the internet something like a table of %
chances of a system failing in relation to S/R's.

Personally, I think the POT% is irrelevant to knowing the long term chances
of a system succeeding or failing. Obviously the higher POT% the better,
but the S/R is what it is all about. Knowing that after 300 or 500 bets
that you can expect a reasonably consistent S/R, then obviously you take
your minimum price based on that S/R.
If your system has had 500 bets and the S/R is 20%, you'd say that
would pretty well hold up long term.
If your minimum price on that S/R is $10.00 or $7.00 then the POT% is irrelevant.
But kaching, kaching either way.

If your system has had 150 bets, 25% S/R, could you safely say you
are rolling a 4 sided dice with $5.80 on each successful roll long term?
Or has your system just been lucky.

So, I tried to make a table myself. Have a checksies, what do you think?
My POT% on any system is reduced by the Fail% on attached sheet.
The higher S/R, the less chance of a system failing on my excel formula.

Sound good, or am I full of ****.
To me the hardest thing in this horse racing game is not making any system
successful, but knowing the chances of it continuing successfully long term.


PS. I don't like the idea of another 40 years of working life.
This is my life's yellow brick road, it's like I woke up one day and said,
"I'll never give in until I am making a living on the nags."
I know it can be done it just takes time.. forget the doomsdayers, it is
too hard for them or they have a hidden agenda.

So.. my table, any thoughts on it? Adjustments that could be made?
Are my systems ready, or not yet?

Attached Files

FAIL %.xls (30.5 KB, 497 views)