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![]() Ok guys, I am back again with more useless ramblings.
Would you yourself begin to bet on each/if any of the following?: SYS BETS RETURN POT% 1sts S/R A. 245 $332 36% 51 20.82% B. 240 $336 40% 45 18.75% C. 291 $376 29% 43 14.78% D. 80 $117 46% 24 30.00% E. 160 $242 51% 48 30.00% Most of those systems used the same filters which deleted approx. 100 bets, that returned approx. 80-120 units. I cannot find anywhere on the internet something like a table of % chances of a system failing in relation to S/R's. Personally, I think the POT% is irrelevant to knowing the long term chances of a system succeeding or failing. Obviously the higher POT% the better, but the S/R is what it is all about. Knowing that after 300 or 500 bets that you can expect a reasonably consistent S/R, then obviously you take your minimum price based on that S/R. If your system has had 500 bets and the S/R is 20%, you'd say that would pretty well hold up long term. If your minimum price on that S/R is $10.00 or $7.00 then the POT% is irrelevant. But kaching, kaching either way. If your system has had 150 bets, 25% S/R, could you safely say you are rolling a 4 sided dice with $5.80 on each successful roll long term? Or has your system just been lucky. So, I tried to make a table myself. Have a checksies, what do you think? My POT% on any system is reduced by the Fail% on attached sheet. The higher S/R, the less chance of a system failing on my excel formula. Sound good, or am I full of ****. ![]() To me the hardest thing in this horse racing game is not making any system successful, but knowing the chances of it continuing successfully long term. PS. I don't like the idea of another 40 years of working life. This is my life's yellow brick road, it's like I woke up one day and said, "I'll never give in until I am making a living on the nags." I know it can be done it just takes time.. forget the doomsdayers, it is too hard for them or they have a hidden agenda. So.. my table, any thoughts on it? Adjustments that could be made? Are my systems ready, or not yet? |
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