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#11
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Pretty easy KV,
That is saying their is a 1 in 40 chance your system could drop 25.4% POT from it's current POT, whatever your POT, as a general guide. Now sub the green 28 (in the middle) with green 22.9. It should now say that your system of 18% SR after 400 bets could possibly be 20.7% POT worse off than what it is, this is a 1 in 20 chance (or 5% chance) of happening. Again, sub the 28 with the green 17.4. Now with fair accuracy you system (18% SR, 400 bets) could fall 15.8% POT from it's current POT, this is a 10% chance of happening. Personally, I'll stick with the 17.4, so if my system has had 500 bets, 20% S/R, 39% POT then there is a 10% chance my system may fall to a permanent POT% of 26.2%. Of course call fall lower, less chance though. But with the table above I would know that my system has a better than even chance (actually 40% chance ) of permanently hovering around the 31 - 47% POT range. Kapiche, it's just a guide. That is all. |
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