OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#24

22nd January 2006, 10:36 PM

woof43

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 696

Quote:

Originally Posted by moeee

And can I say Woofer,without trying to bag your ideas,because they also appear sound,you also are looking in the wrong place.
Although it may very well have been a bad night to release your theory or perhaps there is really a phantom curse about.

I do understand that your market did not allow for the box draw and a number of important factors.
And I did not in fact do the maths of actually working out your returns that would result in backing the overs at your posted prices.
It would be criminal of me to expect a profit on turnover,but I would expect your overlay prices to have returned better than a 17% loss.

And again,I didn't do the maths,but considering that not a single winner started at over your posted prices,I may be over hastily condemning your efforts.

Please appreciate that I do appreciate your effort and am not condemning you or your mode of assessment.
Could you please,if you did in fact have a bet or two on the meeting,notify if you actually had a winning or losing night.

Thanks Woofer.

Hi Moee,
The reason for my posting was to show just using Lengths beaten could give you a great insight into each race without the need to convert times etc an just using a formguide, I maybe should not have posted the estimated payoffs as each was based on Life to Date, this was to provide you with a measuring point, but that aside an just looking at the avg distance beaten IN grade here is my wrap up on each winner for the meeting.

Race 2 #6 Ranked 1st IN Grade
Race 3 #7 Ranked 2nd IN Grade (further investigation reveals this dog had a spell of 119 days, prior to the spell its avg time was 30.562 after spell its avg is 30.266 by far best dog in race)
Race 4 #3 Ranked 4th IN Grade, ranked 2nd best in 4th Grade
(this dog had substanially improved in 12 starts since a 35 day spell )
Race 5 #2 Had only 1 run In Grade(where it finished 19 lens from winner badly checked),was Ranked 1st in 5th grade
Race 7 #8 Ranked 2nd In Grade
Race 8 #7 Ranked 3rd In Grade and ranked 2nd in 4th Grade
Race 9 #7 Ranked 3rd IN Grade and ranked 1st in FFA
Race 10 #2 Ranked 2nd IN Grade
Race 11 #7 Ranked 7th IN Grade and ranked 1st in 4th grade

Hope the above helps somewhat...

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