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Old 31st January 2006, 12:27 PM
moeee moeee is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
Default A slant on Framing a Market.

As I peruse the animals form,I go about placing all dogs in order from the one with the most chance of saluting to the one with the least.
The top animal is given a SCORE of 100.
Then every animal is given 10% less than the animal immediately above it.

So,with 8 dogs,the scores would be 100,90,81,73,66,59,53,48.
This gets me started.
Then I compare the top 2 dogs by imagining they were together in a match race.And this match race was run 100 times.
What share of those 100 results would be won by each dog?
So No.1 has 100 and No.2 has 90.As a percentage No.1 has 53 and No.2 has 47.
If I feel that No.1 can win more than 53 times I decrease No.2's score by a further 10%.
Now No.1 is 100 and No.2 is 81.Percentage chance is 55 and 45.
Again,if I rate No.1 as capable of better than that,another 10%.
No.1 is 100,No.2 is 73.Percentage now 58 and 42.
If it looks about right,THEN the new scores are 100,73,66,59,53,48,43,39.
Then I compare dogs one and three in the same manner.
Then dog 2 and 3.Then 1 and 4.And 2,4 and 3,4.And so on until I have compared every one of the 28 possible combinations.

Then divide the total score by each dogs individual score and you have the minimum dividend The dog needs to pay to qualify to be an overlay.
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