But are you rating a horse to find the winner, or to find a horses chances in the race.
Every horse has a chance of winning the race, that is why you rate them...

In my example, horse A) has been rated as a $4 horse. This does not mean it will win because it is rated higher than the other horses. It means that you believe it has a 25% (or greater) chance of winning the race.

In 100 races, this selection would win 25 times. If you take $2 about it, then I stand by my original argument, and you are mad. You pay out $100 and get back $50.

Horse B) you have rated as having a 20% chance of winning the race. In 100 races, it will win 20 of them. At odds of $100, you only need 1 to win to get your money back.
Bet $100, get back $2000.

It is all about what you are rating horses for. I believe you are trying to find a horses chance of winning a race, not the most likely.



Will change my example:
Horse A) is still rated as a $4 horse and still $2 on the books.
Horse B) is now rated as a $4.05 horse and showing $100 on the books.

Same scenario. Which one do you bet?