I’ve noticed over time that many forumites shy away from backing / tipping horses running first-up after a spell. I think in general the uninformed punter does similar and as such backing specific ‘first-up’ horses can provide a nice return on investment.

I normally punt on a $4x$8 basis as often they will run a place (but not necessarily win) at big odds.

I select horses that are resuming from a spell of 6 months or less, with a previous good first-up record, that have been rated in my top 5 selections for the particular race.

Their race rating is based on the average of previous first-up performances max 3 most recent for 5YOs or older, or best of last 2 for 4YOs or younger.

I’ll often increase my outlay if they have performed well in recent barrier trial/s.