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Doomben Saturday Races
Hi Guys..lets hope we all do better this week. Some good betting races and there will be alot of value in trifectas ect..
Race 1. San Fransisco looks the one to beat is in great form and should again be too good ..I cant see any value in him though as i think you'll be lucky to get near $4 ..But whos going to beat him ? Octanee isnt hopeless and runs well fresh but bar plates on?,,Ceffyl is in good form but has a bit of weight ,,Gator isnt the most reliable horse around but he did look good last start in a way stronger race than this and will be fitter,,,Maybe Sircolo who never runs a bad race and wont know himself with that weight he does have a problem with pulling but Zac's good with horses like this.... I have San Francisco way out in front but Sircolo e/w at the odds might be a better bet if we don't get a price.. Race 2. Hard to line up the form around this New Zealander Cog Hill ,,i'm reluctant to back these without a run over here...unless its wet of course...so i'll be risking him tomorrow especially at the 3's ,,,Spirit of Tara should win this ,,but hes had his chances ,,,did get beaten by the Scone Cup winner last start so the forms strong and hes also performed against the best around...hard to knock him on form but his win rate at 12% is a worry..I did however notice he was ridden closer last start and he still found the line...if they do the same from the good barrier he'll win this.. I'm a fan of Deuxieme and you can forget his last run where he was just way to far back and i think still alittle jaded from the track at e/f on the 22nd...he'll improve tomorrow on the better surface and has a better sprint than anything in this field...problem is he needs speed which is lacking here....Hard to follow Vilabled but she should run a better race from the good alley...and Clang Edition isnt hopeless and maybe a place chance at odds... I have Spirit of Tara on top ,,,Deuxieme, Cog Hill, Villabled and Clang edtion for the placings.. Race 3. Storm Signal was fantastic last start and should be hard to beat here..has an awkward barrier but the start position is fair from the 1350,,,,The Bailey runners of Coincidental, Decibeel , Star Of Asia all good chances ...i thought one at odds Countess Bathory was well in this race,,will need to have some luck getting across but from all reports the horse is flying and jumps well..so if she gets a position will be in it for a long way....Decibeel was jumping out of the ground last start but this is harder....Coincedental should be ready now and has the ideal barrier if he actually jumps with them this time..Galloway in good form and is the best of the Bailey runners... Storm Signal / Coincidental,,,,,Decibeel,Countess Bathory,La Sizzerane and Star of Asia for the placings.. Race 4. Sweet As and Thundering Girl were both good last start where they made a stack of ground on a day where it was hard to do so,,,Gold edition will have to use some petrol to get over to the rail but on last weeks performance you'd think she could do it and probably still be to good for these....i dont like the race as i'm not confident enough to back against Gold edition...if you are looking for value Sweet As and Thundering girl look a chance...and Silent Power trialled very very well at the coast and has the good barrier he should lead and if Gold edition struggles to get across this might be the one to sneak away with it.. i'll be having some fun with tris ect.. Race 5. Magic Harmony was finding the line very nicely last start made a stack of ground from a mile back ...the extra 200m suits and so does the double figure odds....Gaze is the one to beat ,,will be stronger after that run last week and will have the nice run from the good alley...Zenarta is tuff but has only been here a few days from the float trip so i'll have him safe but he'll keep for next time.... Gaze is probably the safe bet but i do like the value with Magic Harmony ,,.. Zenarta ,Vietnam and Beauty Watch the place getters.. Race 6. i like the swoopers here in Show Biz Kid and Picaday ..both suited better across the road but there looks a stack of speed here that should see them get there chance....i cant seperate them but at the odds i dont have to... Hard to Catch should again be right in this and i thought Yell was a chance at odds ..the princess will be her usual brave self ... Picaday should get the nice run and if Jb gets him out he'll be super strong the last 100m...Show Biz kid has the wider barrier but that doesnt worry him as he'll drop out anyway and will atleast get the uninterupted run to the line down the outside.. Picaday/SBK,,,,, Race 7. I really like Ikes Dream here...at first i thought Roman Arch all day but after doing the speed map i can see ikes Dream swamping them...I cant see alot of speed here,,,if it was a true staying test i'd be all over Roman Arch or Mahtoum but if its going to be a sit and sprint affair Ikes Dream is just to quick for them...she'll drop out the back and if they just cruise and then bunch up on the turn she'll win...even if shes suspect at the distance ... Roman Arch and Mahtoum the dangers....don't leave out Above Deck aswell as High Academy a good chance to jag a place if hes ridden with Ikes dream at the back and tracks her into it.. Ikes Dream all day. Race 8. I'm a LaMontagna fan as you all know...gets to a distance that suits and should be winning and then shortening up heaps for the Straddie...she'll get back and does need some luck in the straight but there will be a stack of speed and the field should be broken up enough for her to find some room... Master Dennis has finally got a barrier and shouldnt be underestimated ...Century Serb did well last start against the top sprinters around but will she'd have to be feeling it now....Nova Star's run was huge last start ,,actually a video standout,,,made an enormous amount of ground .....Fabiarna was solid last start aswell.. La Montagna on top....might have alittle on Master Dennis and Nova Star at the odds...good trifecta race.. Best Bets.. San Fransisco , Spirit Of Tara, Ikes Dream, La Montagna Best ew/s... Sircolo, Magic Harmony Good Luck all |
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