Thanks for your reply jfc.

You seem to be on the same wavelength as me to a certain extent.
I consider my first four model to be a very good one. The fact that i turnover millions of dollars a year on this bet type and have continually beaten the 20-25% rake over time shows how good my model is. And no i dont use Bayes Theorem of using win probabilities to predict the placings. I have sufficient evidence to disprove this. The superfecta before the abolished it was my biggest winner. The takeout there was 25% and my POT was huge thanks to a couple of sweeps of the pool. A few times a multiple jackpot would occur and in a big field it was quite easy to hold the only live ticket.

At the end of the day a 20% rake is definitely easy to overcome if you are taking all of the "overs" combinations. I have recently started betting in Hong Kong on the six up and Triple Trios and the overlays in some of the combinations there are huge. An example is no 4 being an unlucky Chinese number. If a no 4 wins in any of these bet types the dividends are significantly inflated. Massive pools and huge carry over jackpots mean the dividends pay "overs" quite frequently.

Just because the TAB have such a huge rake doesnt mean that these overlays dont exist. For example the World Cup has plenty of them. I dont know who sets the odds but they stuffed up big time with the quarter final odds. The original market for teams in groups G and H to reach the quarters was 160% when 2 teams MUST qualify from the 8 teams within. A huge arbitrage situation that didnt last long once i took to it. My biggest problem is not finding overlays but getting barred by fixed odds betting agencies. I have hundreds of accounts in different names and still manage to get several a week closed down.

Cheers
ATC