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A Markov disrespect
Some may have noticed a request for a layman's explanation of that Parrondo paper. Which no one was prepared to attempt.
http://www.eleceng.adelaide.edu.au/...er/games/ma.htm However I'll produce my effort here in the hope that a few might actually bother looking at the link, learn something and stop insulting others' intelligence. Game B is supposed to be negative. The win chances depend on your position: 0 10% 1 75% 2 75% Now intuitively that looks positive. If you assume the 3 slots are equally likely then your win expectation is (10+75+75)/3% ~= 53.33% But if you actually use a spreadsheet to repeatedly play the game you find your chances of being in a particular spot end up as: 0 38.46% 1 15.38% 2 46.15% And that win expectation is precisely 50% = Break Even. Note that you are spending far more than 1/3rd of your time in ZERO - the Slot of near-Death. But if you alter Game B by merging it with a negative coin toss with only 49% win chance and repeat the spreadsheet operation then the chance of being on pesky ZERO reduces from 38.46% to 34.51%. That in turn changes Game B to 52.57%. Now the average of 49% and 52.57% is clearly better than 50%. And if you are worried that your taxpayer-funded grants will be taken away because everybody else is bored by such pointless calculations which have absolutely no real-life use, then you title your effort with an eye-catching lie like: "Losing strategies can win" |
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