Can someone tell this beginner why loss-chasing is doomed to fail? I can do all the form I want, but when I bet money on 500 kg animals running around a track I know that some of them simply don't seem to know what I'm expecting of them. But ... if I am confident enough in my form assessment to say that at some point I will win a return, it seems logical to expect the return to provide profit by paying for the previous non-winning tries.

Is it simply the inevitable long losing streak that kills the bank? In other words, apart from this long losing streak, loss-chasing would be fine? (Not trying to be smart here – or stupid – just making a genuine enquiry.) I know roulette systems don't work, but only because if they did everyone would be doing it. When I think about it I have to ask, why don't they?? Is it just the long losing streak?

Whatever the most workable answers to that issue, there seems to remain an unavoidable reality. I have a small bank. The point of the exercise is to make it a big bank. I cannot reasonably expect to maintain a good strike rate betting everything that goes round a track. If I am selective I'll need about 200 years. Therefore I need leverage. Somehow, someway, I need leverage.
Looking for enlightenment.


[ This Message was edited by: shoto on 2003-07-07 21:10 ]