12th December 2006, 02:55 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,070
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Trick question... ?
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Originally Posted by Racer
We all know that approx. 30-33% favs. win each year regardless of which track in the WORLD, upto now, - it will be interesting to note if that approx. continues.( mind you I've always been slightly astounded that those fav. approxs' vary so little across the world).
Pixie, is there any chance,with you being a tech. analyst, of taking a stab at why the latter matter might be so please ?
Regards.
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Racer
Well I can't offer an opinion on overseas racing, but the reason about 30% of favourites win Australian races is because on average they are given about a 30% chance in the market, isn't it??
As a very quick and dirty example, the average SP for all fav's on the Vic TAB at the city meetings in VIC, NSW, QLD and SA last Saturday 9th Dec was approx $3.09 (32.36%). The Saturday before, 2nd Dec, the figure was approx $3.18 (31.44%). That gives us an average over those two days of 31.9%. I've not deducted the TAB's vig but you get the idea.
In the 62 races run over those two days, 19 Vic TAB favourites won, which is about 30.64%
I'm not somebody that watch's the Fav's specifically. Sometimes I lay them, sometimes I don't. It all depends on how the planets align.
Bye
Pixie
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