Hi all,

Nice weather here in Brissy for the last day of the carnival. Its a tough program but we'll see what we can do.

Race 1 – I don’t mind Poiym at odds here. They’ve tried to bite off a bit more than they can chew the last couple, going into listed class. I don’t think she’s up to that. But back in this easier grade, I think she’s a good chance. The good draw might be a little worry, judging by the racing on Saturday, but we’ll see what happens. Aquareine is a nice horse too. I’m not sure what has happened her last few runs, I would’ve expected something better, but back in the easier class here I’ll give her another chance. I’ll put Sir Sensible in for 3rd, he can run on late if there is good speed on. He is a horse who has always had ability, he just needs to show it on a more consistent basis.

Race 2 – Don’t mind Danawana here. Pretty tough affair really, with no standout runners, but this bloke is a 1000m specialist and if he can get across easily enough from his alley, I think he is a nice chance at odds. Consider Yourself is obviously the danger after the top run last time in much tougher class. I just haven’t got him on top because he hasn’t won enough to justify the short odds they’ll be putting him up at. Top chance though. For 3rd, I’ll throw in Instructed. Can’t explain the first up run, he had a perfect run and just didn’t finish it off. But given that he is here today, I can only assume that there is nothing wrong and if that is the case, on class alone, he can figure here. The 19 alley is a concern though

Race 3 – I Like Pepperwood here. He comes back to the easier class here after a good performance in the Sires. The drop back to 1200m is a worry, but I think if he can hold a closer position in running from the good alley, he can sprint away from them and win well. Nice bonus having Rodd onboard too. Mosstang has ability and from the good alley shouldn’t be trapped deep and can finish it off if there is some speed on. Admiral Gherkin has won well his last 2 starts and although this is a step up, I have great respect for his trainer. Don’t discount him.

Race 4 – Slim Pickings here. After a freshen up I think he’ll be cherry ripe for this kind of race. It’s a pretty ordinary affair and if there is a little bit of speed on, I think he can finish over the top of them. Hope the odds in the paper ($15) stay too. Nexgen will no doubt fill a placing as he always seems to do. He has the ability to smash this lot, but doesn’t like winning, so he’ll probably loom up and then stop. I wouldn’t begrudge this bloke a win, he has always been consistent without winning much, but he’s just not a viable betting option. Friscos Vision for 3rd. Pretty consistent horse and if he can get a good run from the alley with some speed on, is a great chance to run home over the top of them. I’ve left him at 3rd because I’ve never been able to pick him on his right day

Race 5 – Raheeb. Has run great races behind Reigning to Win his last couple and without that horse engaged here, I think he can go mighty close. The outside alley is a concern however we can only hope that Gold Edition goes quickly enough to string them out and this bloke can slot in somewhere. Should get 10s with Gold Edition in the race, which is nice. Hollaback was unlucky last start, as has been highlighted by everyone who saw the run, so I’m not expecting fancy odds about her. She will be unders for what she has done so far, but I’ll stick her in on the assumption that she has good ability. Gold Edition for 3rd. She was a doubt at 1400m, so I can’t have her on top in a 1600m race, even against her own grade. She might just been too classy for the, but she’ll win without me. Top run on Saturday, but a quick backup after that run in the Straddy isn’t ideal for this race I believe.

Race 6 – I’m going with Diamond Deck here. The distance suits I think and she has been super consistent so far and if she holds the form, I think she can win. It’s a very even race so its difficult to be very confident, but I think at $6 or $7 she is a good bet. Kyros was a nice run last time, getting home well and if he repeats that run he is a top chance. He isn’t bred to get a mile, but 2yos can do it if they mature quicker than the opposition. I just hope for his sake that the inside is not off by this stage. If not, he can run well. Kick ‘n’ Chase is a nice horse in the making and even after being wide last time he chased gamely and only went down under a length. If he gets some cover here I think he is worth a look. Tough race, good luck with whatever you fancy.

Race 7 – Don’t mind Newport here. Drawn the inside and has been in good form lately around Sydney. Robinson getting down to 52 is a solid pointer, so given all that I believe the 12s on offer are pretty good. Mandela is the obvious danger. Hes the class horse who was just anchored by the weight last time. He should be cherry ripe for this race and from the good gate, won’t cover an inch of extra ground. Pentathon was a super run last time, flying home from the tail. If he repeats that effort, he is a massive chance. The big weight is a concern though, which is why I’ve left him out of the top 2. There are a few other nice chances, but you can’t have them all

Race 8 – Don’t mind Enrique here. Has won well at 1600m before and his runs lately have been great, in harder company. The drop back in grade here should see him run into the placings, if not first. Byrne should be able to find him a spot from the 6 and be able to navigate to the best part of the track in the straight. Nice way to finish the carnival I think. Legendary Man is a chance too, after some good recent runs. I’m prepared to forgive the last one because he is obviously better than that. Atapi for 3rd. He has obvious ability but I can never seem to get him on the right day. So given that I’ll just stick him in for a placing and be done with it.

Tough days racing. I like Pepperwood and Slim Pickings with Poiym a nice bet at odds.

Good luck with whatever you choose to bet on

Sven