All,

Lets try some pace analysis.

According to some stats I have read 45% of the first 3 runners around the first turn are going to win. Sounds interesting if you can find a sole leader. So how are we going to determine that. We could use a pay resource (something I frown upon) or we could try and piece something together ourselves.

Some form guides have information on where the horse is running at various stages of the race. You COULD use the race(form) guides at race net or exp_ert form.

I am going to assume exp_ert form cause it is quicker but it won't be as exact as using race net (most rides have comments beside them for you to work it out).

First off give every horse a point.

Look at the last 3 races for the horse (where there is info on positions) and assign points as follows:

1. Leading at 800m = 1 points
2. Leading at 400m = 2 points
3. 2nd at 800m = 1 points
4. 2nd at 400m = 2 points
5. 3rd at 800m = 1 point
6. 3rd at 400m = 1 point

If the horse ran 1st or 2nd at 800m and 400m in all 3 runs then give a bonus 2 points.

The maximum a horse can get is 11 points.

We are looking for clear leaders that have at least a 4 point advantage over the nearest rival.

For instane Gosford today Double Dip scored 11 points. Nearest Rival had 5 points. Double Dip went on to win.

Good Luck