Betfair is still the #1 site to watch & continues to support my claim that the market is the #1 key to punting.

i watched the betfair moves in the last @ Canterbury tonite. Ultimate Risk opened up in the ring around the $1.70 mark. There was early support all around for it through most sites.
15min-20min in a $50k lay bet went up. Now most times you might see a $5k lay then a smaller one go up at the same time. This is usually done on Betfair to push the odds out before they remove the lays, swap over and get on at a slightly inflated price. Otherwise known as Manipulation. Its common in most races. Tonite this unusually large $50k lay bet didnt move. It infact chased higher allowing $5k chunks to be taken out of it. This to me was an instant alert. Not only was it a very high amount for a Thursday night at Canterbury but they were more then happy to lay the entire $50k which is a good sign they know somethings up.

Ultimate Risk went out very slightly in the market upon jump. Betting moves will show closely enough to $1.70 open $1.85 jump. Looking through other sites it wasnt obvious to most that something was up and the horse was supported well enough. All it took was 1 layer up to something very unusual for those that watch closely enough.

When they cornered in the last the voice of Ian Craig was heard " Ultimate Risk is going backwards" then " Ultimate Risk finishes last, there must be something terribly a miss with it"

Well, after seeing this layer chase down anyone that came near to get his $50k unloaded it was hardly surprising. $50k starting near $1.70 and chasing punters all the way up to and over $1.80 on a Thursday night meet & "the horse must have gone terribly a miss"....it was hardly a surprise. I was infact waiting to see how it would get beat.

I wonder whether our stewards will take it further. I watch flucs on betfair everyday and this was very out of the box to say the least. Someone knew exactly what was going on. Even on a Saturday, doing your best to get rid of $50k is worthy of a 2nd look at thats mixed up between big bets. This was 1 lone sole with an awfully big gripe with an odds on horse that just happened to tail right off.

__________________
Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin