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Weaver, yes they are more reliable over jumps.....in general.
One would think they have a chance of falling - every jumper does, and consequently interfered with if not the faller. But they just win more races, albeit at shorter odds. As to the track condition debate.... Fast - 32.42% S/R, 10.11% LOT Good - 31.61% S/R, 12.66% LOT Dead - 29.94% S/R, 15.33% LOT Slow - 28.70% S/R, 15.33% LOT Heavy - 29.46% S/R, 13.31% LOT No real reason to bet on Dead or Slow but not Heavy. That's raw data on favourites, chuck in a filter or two and Heavy gets a big promotion I think in the UK they take far more notice of bloodlines and Sire lines than we do here. The buyers at the sales yards concentrate on sires and bloodlines, but in general the punters only look at the career stats. If we knew about certain horses, we could make a fortune laying them. There is a Group 1 horse running in the Doncaster, that will not fire on anything worse than Good, the owner told me this info, and there is another that is running that has been recovering from injury, they don't expect to fire either. Over about 200 races, his consortium has 100% success rate and he's sharing his info with me. Not one winner, and all layable odds. It's who and what you know that makes money. They are buying up horses all over the place to lay for profit, it's becoming a very large organisation. Nothing untoward, they simply lay the info, and stay away from horses with a good chance. It started out to recoup expenses and grew like massively. If only I were part of it, but I'm sure we'll all here more.
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