OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Betfair Premium Charges Unplugged

#22

6th October 2008, 03:54 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,437

Quote:

Originally Posted by stebbo

I have heard this argument many times, and at one time (for a short period of time) actually thought this myself. However this is a very simplistic view of the situation. It is only the fact that the commission is paid post-collect that makes this argument appear to be valid, however it is not necessarily the case.

In the case you cite above, let's assume the punter in question has bet $18,000 and returned $20,000 for his $2,000 profit. If commission were factored into the dividend (as it is with bookies and the tote) then he would have bet $18,000 and returned $19,000 for a $1000 profit and he may consider himself to be a reasonable punter.

Not necessarily, the assumption is that he'd still be winning after commission were paid on every single winning bet, not just net profit.

Quote:

If we can agree that over a very large number of bets, the better dividends will be where the market takeout (including commission) is the lowest, then if that same punter had put that same $18,000 into the totes (if a horse racing punter) at 17% takeout, then the $18,000 bet would have only resulted in a return of something like $17,000 and they would be in a loss situation. Regardless of whether the $1,000 in commission is paid before or after the collect, $1,000 profit is still better than $1,000 loss.

The dilemma being -
a) longer odds on Betfair do not necessarily equate to better value, in fact all studies reflect that Betfair prices are a better indicator.
b) You're assuming that a profit on Betfair is equal to a loss on the tote.

Quote:

By my calculations I don't pay any commission.

Really?

I just don't agree that paying 17% on everything is the same as paying 24% and up to 50% on everything.

By default, Betfair's biggest mistake with the premium charge was not in implementing it, but rather opening some punters eyes as to how much commission they were really paying.
It's not 5%, never has been 5% for most punters.

Traders, arbers, book makers yes, punters - no.

This is exactly why some punters cannot believe they still aren't winning when 12% better off.
There are heaps of systems that are close to breakeven at tab prices, yet with another 12% they are still losing.
Surely it is money for jam??

Nope.

I see what your point is however, that if you are getting better odds after commission, that you are better off regardless of commission.
That's true in theory, in practice it's quite different.
Money is a far better indicator on betfair.

I know a couple of people who are currently doing extremely well looking for horses that are below TAB prices on Betfair, and taking bookies odds.

But your point is noted.

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