I do all the elimination processes for a race. No secrets. I look at the highest rated peak in the current campaign. I look at the horse's distance rating, the jockey's strike rate in better class races, win percentage, etc ... and finally the latest form that points to the horse peaking for the upcoming race.

And I end up with a pick. Hey! But sometimes I get down to 2, or 3 horses horses and it is a struggle from ther. Now sometimes that is an argument to stay out of that race. And sometimes it isn't. In some races my elimination method gets down to one race, but really, that race sucks. Although my method easily ends up with one horse, I know the race sucks and really any bar the worst two is a chance.

So I'm stuck with 3 better class races each with two or three picks. I want to trim each one down to one horse. If possible. I know there are qunellas etc, but I'm an exacta kind of a person. LOL

So I'm asking what method or way of looking at a horse's history would be handy as a final decider. I have tried looking at the amount of times it has been favorite and how it has performed then. But I'm not sure I'm reading that right. I have tried to see if there has been any benefit just flat betting: 10 dollars on each race from the past two campaigns and rating them according to that. But if a horse has won once at $21 in the past couple of months, it throws that off. Anther better horse may have won three times as a favorite in the same time, but the return is less. I remember reading about a formula for that somewhere. Once again, I don't know if I'm reading that right.

I have had some success looking back at its previous campaign and trying to second guess the trainer. But so often a trainer tries different things.

Anything I haven't thought of?