That was the best way i could describe it.

I am looking in to trends in the betfair market.

I am trying to work out what i make of a horse that has had a stack of money traded on it, relative to the overall total traded in the field.

A $2 pop commonly has 80%+ of the total traded in the race. Does this mean we can read in to anything? Is it the backers getting stuck in to it, or is it the layers laying the thing flat out? There would of course be some doing a bit of both i admit.

I kept track of a few today (i know its aaaaaa-all), and noticed when a favoured horse had been traded on heavily but still remained a 'good' price (ie 3.50+) it was beaten and perhaps the layers were controlling that price, hence a lot of layers vying to get first in the queue.

The problem seemingly lies in the fact that laying a horse everybody wants to lay and backing the ones that everybody else wants to back leaves you with empty pockets long term.

I would like to hear others views on this, and if anyone has investigated further.

Long term i would like to work on some sort of formula to take advantage of these 'trends' if in fact they do exist.

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All generalizations are dangerous.