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You have a valid point there Stix. I think than in my post I was oversimplifying the point about acceptable price regarding SR. Put another way, in the long run if we add up all our winning bet prices [from shorties to long-shots] and work out their average price and find we have lost for the period, then the prices we are taking must be improved in some areas, or alternately, our SR must be improved if we wish to make a profit. Naturally, as you have pointed out, our shorter priced winners will get up more than our long-shots. Getting the price balance right is the important thing. Looking at the performance of our 'price bands', will soon tell us where we need better prices. We also have the option of ignoring a race if we feel the price on our selection is too low. Although we might be sure the selection will win, often it won't! We don't have to bet a selection regardless of price just because we think it will win. We can move on. I ignore heaps of horses that I consider at a poor price and unless their is another horse in the race at good odds that I think has a better chance of winning than it's odds suggest. Some will lose but also some will win. Ditto a shortie I liked but ignored because below a certain price, not enough of them get up for me, to be profitable. Ditto above a certain price [unless I've spotted something, which doesn't happen that often]. Between $4 and $9 is my personal comfort zone and ironically, the higher odds winners [a bit less of them of course] are returning more profit than my shorter priced ones. That's my personal experience anyway. For other punters it might be the other way around. Last edited by crash : 19th June 2009 at 08:19 AM. |
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