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Old 29th January 2010, 09:04 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,788
Default Lay Anomaly

It would be expected Don Scott's market and Unitab ratings to be somewhat accurate. However the Bet results over the past four days when combined is somewhat disappointing. So I've looked at a Lay method. The Lay selection must be the:

1) Top outright selection with Don Scott's market of a max price of $2.90.
2) And must also be the top outright Unitab ranking.

I have looked at only those selections that have started on Unitab with a max price of $6.90.

Over the past four days there have been 57 selections for 12 accidents (4 were odds-on). I added 25% to Unitab's liability prices. For example, if the accident paid $3.00 on Unitab I deducted the stake of $1 so that the liability was $2. Adding my 25% to this, the liability I used for testing purposes was therefore $2.50.

There were 45 successes, and with Betfair's 5% take-out the retrurn was $42.75 and the total liability using my calculations was $26.50. This gives an overall profit of $16.25. Incidentally, there were 9 selections that started higher than $6.80 on Unitab - they were all beaten.

If anyone's interested today's selections are:

Armidale R1 no.7 - Hypnotize
Armidale R5 no.4 - Studio Star
Armidale R8 no.3 - Laser Light
Goulburn R2 no.11 - Hagiadzo
Mornington R2 no.6 - Marmillion
Te Aroha R4 no.6 - Our Sweetheart
Te Aroha R5 no.4 - Golden Gate
Te Aroha R6 no.10 - Posavina
Te Aroha R7 no.1 - Tampiko.
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