Here's a question for all you clever analytical types out there. The common assumption is that a selection rated as a 33% chance will win one race in three, all conditions being equal in each (repeated) race.

My question is this: is this assumption really true? Isn't the percentages we assign to a selection just a way of us estimating a selections chance, rather than reflecting what will happen in reality? Surely the same winner, in equal circumstances, will win again? Thus isn't the reality of any race really - winners chance:100% all others: 0% - rather than the market we frame for the race? Isn't the frame a way of adjusting for the unknown variables we can't predict?

I ask this because it is having a bearing on how I consider the viability and practical analysis of systems in general. Remember, stats is just a way of representing many numbers with just one "meaningful" one.

I'd be very interested to hear your considered opinions.

~Lenny