Hi guys

Im just trying to do some calculations to see if i can more accurately predict the winners....i know horse racing is not a science...its more difficult than that however, if you can shed any light on the following questions i would be obliged.

• How many lengths on average is a horse handicapped by per extra kilo? so say 2 horses were carrying 55kg for a 1000m and both ran it in .59s. if we put and extra kilo on horse A before the start...what would we expect his time to be then or how many lenghts behind horse B?

• How much slower on average would horse carrying the same weight run a 1000 in different conditions. So say the average time for 1000m on a dead 4 track for horse X is 59.5. What time could we expect on a good 4 track, a slow 4 and a heavy 4?

I understand that some horses prefer different conditions but is it right to assume that most horses will run faster on a dead track and slower on the heavier?

would be great to hear your opinions and analysis on this.

cheers