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![]() Hey guys another set of questions, sorry but you knowledgeable know a s***load more than myself, so I have to ask.
Number of tests to have confidence??? After more research on this forum I found some interesting equations. My results are as follows: seln 158 ret 217.9 w 52 s/r 32.9% ave div $4.19 lowest $2 highest $7.7 longest run of outs 9 longest run of ins 4 exp = ((DECSP-1) *W%) -L% exp = ((4.19-1) * 0.329) - 0.671 exp = (3.19 * 0.329) - 0.671 exp = 1.0495 - 0.671 exp = 0.3785 (37.8% profit for each dollar bet) MINAP (minimum acceptable profit) I would be very happy with 20%) ERR = W% - (1+MINAP / DECSP) ERR = 0.329 - (1+0.20 / 4.19) ERR = 0.329 - 0.2864 ERR = 0.0426 Confidence level (Z) input 90% confidence = 1.65 TESTS = W% * L% * (Z / ERR) * (Z / ERR) TESTS = 0.329 * 0.671 * (1.65 / 0.0426) * (1.65 / 0.0426) TESTS = 0.329 * 0.671 * 38.7324 *38.7324 TESTS = 331.1824 So did I work this out correctly? After 331 bets I can be 90% confident of making 20c on every dollar bet? Winner Winner Chicken Dinner! |
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