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#1
3rd January 2011, 09:50 AM
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Maidens, Lowest Number of Starts
Here is an idea I have been working on recently, which appears to show POT. The idea is that Maidens are often won by horses with the fewest convictions. I'll post the selections for a few days, and see how it continues (overcome the forum curse?).
Rules: -all maiden races are candidates, but delete 2 YO and 3YO maidens, and maidens where there is more than one first starter. -list starters (after scratchings) by number of previous runs. -there are up to three selections (bets) a race: they are the (up to) three with the lowest number of previous starts. Where there are ties (same number of previous starts), choose from the lowest up, but stop when ties mean there are more than three selections. Examples. In Race 1, no 1 is a first starter, nos 4 and 7 have had only one prior start each, no 6 has had 2 prior starts. Selections are 1, 4, 7. (6 misses out as we already have our three selections. In Race 2, no 3 has had one prior start, 5 has had two prior starts, nos 2, 7, 8, 9 have all had three prior starts. There are too many in the 'three prior starts' category, so the only selections are 3 ,5. -In 1400m-1650m races, only bet if the horse with the lowest number of prior starts has had at least 2 runs. -In 1660m up, only bet if the horse with the lowest number of prior starts has had at least 3 starts. Sounds a bit complicated, I know, but here are today's selections (I'll be backing them all for a win, and hoping for a longer priced winner to give a profit): Muswellbrook Race 6 nos 2,11,14 Moruya Race 1 nos 2,4,13 
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