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Old 8th January 2011, 07:20 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,601
Default Odds on, Look On - Wait a minute

We are always told odds on look on (as in don't take the bet) but is this the right advice.

Lets look at betfair odds that I have collected.

There have been 729 returning before any commission $759.44 in the price range of $1.01 - $2.00 inclusive. There were 427 winners.

After 5% commission this returned $742.82 wwhich is a profit.

Conversely if you backed everything in the $2.01 - $3.00 range you had 2382 selections for a return before commission of 2368.65. his will be a larger loss after commission.

I like the $2 and under range for the following reasons.

1. Any good filter can show a profit betting. (or no filter at all)
2. Any good filter can show a profit laying

Obviously this can only be done using betfair prices and the prices obtained make a difference.

If you don't look at horses on betfair under $2 then you are missing a great opportunity.

My prefered method is to lay them using a few filters I have tested that work. If you are going to look at this price range I would suggest laying the horses as there is always the chance that something can wrong for the odds on favourite and if it wins it costs less then backing it. For example a $1.50 chance that is layed and wins only costs me 50c whereas a $1.50 chance that is bet and loses costs me $1. Look at the risk vs reward.
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