A successful system underway
Righto, given all the data and information on here, I’ve no doubt I’ll develop a successful system. I’m in the process of going through all the posts and have a couple of general comments to make.
My list of 100 excuses given by a trainer, jockey and scribes as to why a certain horse didn’t salute puts paid to the best of systems having a SR of better than an arbitrary 40% ….. It also demonstrates clearly to me that the best prospect on the day will not always win. In any race, there may be half a dozen horses with legitimate “excuses” for not winning, which were actually in place BEFORE the race even started. For example; didn’t acclimatise to surroundings, jockey fued spilled on to the track, bad blood count. Now, the average punter wont be aware of any of these “excuses” so he was on a loser before the race had begun. Add these to the list of excuses to be found DURING the run, or the analysis AFTER the run, and it’s a miracle any horse actually wins.
1) We don’t need to pick the best prospect on the day.
I believe the average person is conditioned to believe if there was a winning system then everyone would be doing it. I’m of the opinion that there would be literally hundreds of systems that would show a profit in any particular year ….. all you have to do is back fit them from the form, and I’m not just talking one or two bets per year here, I’m talking a couple of hundred ! So if you can backfit and get a decent system, then all one has to do is to forecast and get a decent system ….. Bingo ! “The more things change, the more they stay the same !” Nothing’s new ! 30% on Favs all over the world, 45% top two tipsters from the year dot, and horses still surprise trainers and connections. I have one particular filter (14 days), when applied to my “consistent horse” plan improves the outcome massively. This has worked way back to 2004 when I started collecting and keeping form guides. You need the right combination for the circumstances at hand. I have a pal in QLD who has been punting systems all his life. I have not interrogated him as it’s his day job. He’s not a big punter but wins a few G’s each week and has been doing so for 30 years. He has many different systems which he massages, watches the SR and plays the odds.
2) No one size fits all ….. localize your system.
I will continue to post my thoughts as I continue with my evaluation of this site. I’ve picked up a couple of beaut ideas for eliminating an “in the market runner” on a regular basis. One only needs an edge !
Last edited by Barny : 17th February 2011 at 03:56 PM.
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17th February 2011, 03:53 PM
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