Here is just something quick.

Most people think the shorter the race the more chance plays a part in the result. But is this true as far as a profit stand point?

Because of this belief, people tend to back fav's in the 1600m+ races to a very short price because the fav should win more often as its got a longer run to show its class.

Looking at it quickly if you layed every fav at or under $3 in < 1600m races you end up losing 213 units. If you were to lay favs in 1800m+ events you get a profit of 3 units. Lay favs in 2000m+ events and you get a 14 unit profit.

Why ? My belief is pace affects these races more then anything else. If the fav does not get a pace that suits it then it is going to find trouble. And also because people think favs should get up due to their class over longer races the price is too short. Further to this we don't have a lot of races 2000m+ in this country and the form at this distance is usually justified by form at a shorter distance (1600m - 1800m).

I would like to hear others opinions on it.