22nd March 2011, 09:26 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Bundy
Posts: 292
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wesmip1
Well they are as objective as you can get in this analysis. They are based on the odds obtained and odds are subjective. But as far the analysis it is usually a good guide on when to start betting. I only bet systems that have less then half a percent due to luck (and are not backfitted ... ie tested over real bets).
Its all to do with probability and some more advanced topics on it. I beleive using the analysis I do is the correct way to know when to bet a system.
The answer to your last thing is if you do have an edge the more bets you have the lower the % chance plays a role. So you would normally see a system sit at 100% chance to start with and slowly move away to be pure edge. As I said half a percent chance is the right time to start betting. before that you should collect more data.
Hope that helps. If you ever want a system analysed make sure you keep your stats for me (every odd on every horse win or lose).
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My concern was someone taking a small sample of what later turned out to be a winning method would show it as a high chance probabilty,dont doubt the usefulness of it just the effect an early application of it could have on the confidence of the user.
Like everything,the more data the better.
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