I have said enough about weights previously, to go over it again.

and maybe my other post was misinterpreted, check the #1 it's past form. go back to its sixth start you will see it's comeback from a 2 month spell its last 5 starts are "different" to its start prior to the spell.(that tells me something about this dog)
Its last start it lead by how far down the back straight, yet reaching the top turn it was a shot duck, the the eventual winner and placegetters all nearly fell over themselves at the 1st turn.
To me this dog will be a classic dog of being "overbet" and judging by how you have read the form, thats how it will be..