OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#11

4th May 2011, 06:08 PM

Barny

Member

Join Date: Dec 2010

Posts: 1,091

I've got a great system

Topweight
LSW
Fav
Barrier one

Topweight wins 15% of the time

LSW wins 15% of the time

Fav’s win 30% of the time

Barrier one wins 10% of the time

Let’s start with the topweight first and try to work out what impact a LSW will have on the 15% SR of the Topweight. Should it improve the topweight’s SR by 15% or part thereof ?? Well yes it should. We need to find out what % of LSW were included in the winning topweight figure as a % of overall LSW / topweight combination.

Let’s assume the following % of LSW, Fav’s and Barrier one are incorporated into the 15% SR of the topweight.

LSW – say 20% of all LSW are topweights = 15% x 20% = 3% added to the topweights chances.
Fav’s – say 20% of all Fav’s are topweights = 30% x 20% = 6% added to the topweights chances.
Barrier one – 10% of all barrier one are topweights = 10% x 10% = 1% added to the topweights chances.

So the Topweight as a LSW and Fav drawn in barrier one will win 25% of the time.

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