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Old 6th October 2011, 01:58 PM
beton beton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Bhagwan
Thanks
I have just looked at Adrian's site.
20 years data confirms that UK racing is similar to Aus results - Fav wins 34% overall. Returns 92% which is more than Aus. Fav's greater than $4 occur in only 10% of races with a 16% strike rate and a 90% return.

But these are tote returns (I assume ) which brings the old question "What is the difference between the tote return and the betfair return.
So using the following assumptions.
Betfair reflects the fav on the tote
Therefore Betfair favs win 34% approx
Betfair will have strike rates for each price at a inversely proportional sliding scale similar to the tote. (shorter the price the higher the strike rate)
The 16% SR is only based on 10% of UK races
15% of Aus races are + $4
Betfair Aus has 27% races at + $4
Betfair prices are higher than tote prices
My observation is that considerably more than 10% UK races are starting at >$4 (8+ runners) considerably more than 15% or even 27% are starting at >$4. This leads to a possibiliy of a positive return in this area by backing the fav.
Hence we have several courses of action
(1) Can somebody extract the historical data from UK Betfair and /or
(2) I will have to trial it
Beton
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