Desi,

I backed the Saints for the final 8 back in early February and I got $1.80 about them. They are now into $1.38. I backed the two WA teams about a fortnight ago. The West Coast have come in from $1.57 to $1.45 and Fremantle have come in from $1.85 to $1.60.

Here are the latest odds on TAB Sportsbet for the 8:
BRISBANE $1.07
PORT ADELAIDE $1.15
ST KILDA $1.38
HAWTHORN $1.40
COLLINGWOOD $1.45
ESSENDON $1.45
WEST COAST $1.45
FREMANTLE $1.60
SYDNEY $1.70
ADELAIDE $1.85
RICHMOND $1.90
KANGAROOS $2.65
GEELONG $3.50
MELBOURNE $3.50
WESTERN BULLDOGS $4.25
CARLTON $4.50

I'm not sure about backing another team now. I may leave it for another week or two. Despite what happened on Sunday, Essendon can still definitely make the 8, but they face another tough game against St Kilda this week. Hawthorn plays the Kangaroos. Hawthorn's draw is so good this year that I think they are in excellent shape to make the finals and $1.40 is good value if you think they can beat the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos are always under-rated by everyone and I think they will do quite well again this year, but I don't know if they are quite good enough to make the finals. I actually think Sydney might be good value. That $1.70 could be a bit over the odds.

I've worked my predictions out this way. I reckon there are ten main chances to make the 8 this year; the 6 non-Victorian teams plus St Kilda, Collingwood, Essendon and Hawthorn. I reckon probably 1 of the interstate teams will miss out and probably 1 of those 4 Melbourne teams. It's a matter of deciding which ones!

By the way, I've just shown TAB Sportsbet's odds because that's where I backed my teams. I'm sure that if you shop around, you can probably find better value on some of the teams with other bookies.

[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-03-30 08:44 ]