In the spirit of giving at Christmas time and also due to comments on another thread about the UK forumites not sharing anything, lest someone take their advantage away from them, I will share with you what I am currently trying out.

This testing was the subject of the “Advise Sought” thread (sorry about the wrong spelling for “advice”) ops: where I asked if it’s better to stop after a set amount is reached or you just keep betting all day long.

Most said that it was better to keep going with some making a caveat that there may be some merit in stopping early should there be better outcomes in the early races. One such system that worked by stopping early was Bhagwan’s 3rd fave system where you stop after 6 losses or after 1 winner (whichever came first). This produced 50 points profit for the month of testing (1 point per bet) however it seemed to affect which horse was 3rd fave according to a few posters. That’s what I’m worried about in revealing this “system”. It may affect the prices should it be moderately successful.

But, what the hey! Here goes.


RULES
Back first 2 faves if the prices are within 3% chance of winning with each other (My bot – BF Bot Manager – has a function that says what the percentage chances of the horse/dog winning are which is based on their prices. Thus a 1st fave with a 25% chance and 2nd fave with a 22% chance are a bet)
Back equal amount on each of the 2 faves (1 unit each on first 2 faves = 2 units per race)
Maximum Odds of 4.5 for the 1st fave on Betfair (doesn’t matter what price the 2nd fave is)
Trailing stop loss at –10 units (that’s 5 losing races in a row or a combination of winning and losing races resulting in the –10 trailing stop loss being hit)
Profit Stop at +5 units
ALL RACES TOGETHER– That’s gallops, harness and greyhounds in running order
Minimum $3500 volume on Betfair
Minimum of 5 runners

I’m betting the minimum amount on Betfair which is $5 per fave (or $10 per race).
Stops for me are +25 profit stop or –50 stop loss (I’ve set mine at -49 as the bot doesn’t stop on –50 – it has to exceed that amount).

As you can see, this is a little like Bhagwan’s backing the 3rd fave system in that, if you just keep betting all day then, chances are you will end up giving back any gains (but obviously, not always so) as the law of averages will then hit you.


I’m not sure if anyone has tried this angle before or know the stats for something like this. If you do, then please let me if I am wasting my time. L I’m thinking that the law of averages will just hit me sooner or later but I’ve got to try something. I haven’t got 20 or 30 systems on the go like some others have here.

I’ll give my results so far in the next post.