Numerator,

A couple of points on your post.
1. I think when you are looking at this you have to group the "marginal change" ones in with same price grouping. Because of roundings, etc small changes are pretty much meaningless.
2. On your figures there is very little difference between the strike rate of all the groups - certainly with the smallish sample size you could not say with any confidence that "firmers" are more likely to win than "drifters"
3. The larger loss by drifters may be caused by the "false favourites" on TAB caused by large allup investments as per Mr Magic's post? Don't really know (also the difference is only 5% from the average - it may not really be significant in a larger sample size).

My conclusion from these figures is never bet on TAB favourite regardless of whether it is firming or drifting - look for the horses with value in the $8 - $20 range :smile:

Grasscutter - I agree with those conclusions!