I'm not so sure that LSW are overbet, as has been suggested at times, to a point where they're no longer 'value'. Maybe we need to target which LSW we look at? Those LSW that have a placing prior to their win have a very good strike rate. One publication suggests that a LSW that has won two on end is overbet by the public. Are we that dumb that we only look at the front of the form guide and see that the lst two starts are 11 ????? DOH !!!!! and we miss that the last two runs are 21 or 31 ..... and that results in outstanding value compared to the 11 form ????? Can't have that.

A couple of things I do perceive to be factual are;

LSW win more frequently over middle distances than any other and,
LSW with a win at it's previous start wins more than the combined form of running 2nd or 3rd at it's previous run over middle distances.

A LSW may not have reached it's peak.
A LSW may not have been feeling too good at it's previous run, yet it still wins?
A LSW will have put the horse in front of everyone's eyes and might indicate that the stable (should they be so inclined) cannot hide the horse's chance / ability as they might have prior to the win ..... ergo, it's a goer this time for sure ???? ..... arguable.