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#1
3rd February 2012, 12:04 PM
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The 2-Logical system from 1st etc
Here’s the bare bones of something that YOU could turn into a decent system.
There’s no way I’m going to give the Win% I use, and other limits, because punters could lose, I’ll get hammered here, and it’s of no use as you’ll see. 1) Use a high Win rate % as your base 2) Get rid of the over raced 2 y/o and early 3 y/o that have had their wins. There are plenty of examples where horses have a couple of campaigns early and win quite a few races 5, 6 or 7 then do virtually nothing for the rest of their career. You’ll get rid of a lot of losers here, and you’ll also find that these types are really short too. 3) Set a minimum number of wins. For example, no point having say 40% Win S/R and applying it to a nag that’s had three starts. 4) Set a minimum number of starts and a maximum number of starts so that you get a horse that’s got some decent history behind it, but not one that hasn’t any more improvement left in it. 5) With regards to the minimum number of starts, you can adjust downwards for geldings. 6) Do not back the horse if it has lost a number of races in a row, this campaign, more than you would think it should in relation to the Win S/R you’ve set. This rule does not apply to nags in their next campaign. 7) Don’t back mares or fillies backing up too quickly. Even tho’ my system’s logic is based on finding a decent horse and trusting the combo of horse / trainer, there seems to be just some rules that are worth following. Thanks Chrome Prince, this is a beaut. 8) Horse must have won at listed level / country cup etc, or above for obvious reasons. 9) You may wish to apply a price filter. 
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