OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums - Lay value vs Market Percentage

25th March 2012, 07:05 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Lay value vs Market Percentage

Not sure how this will format but here goes:

Code:


Pos 	Barrier 	Margin 	Horse 	Age 	Weight 	Gear 	
Jockey
Trainer
	In-play price 	SPs and Advantage
High 	Low 	BSP 	Tote 	+/− 	Place
1 	(3) 		Riata Special 	3 	56
	bL 	Adrian A. Ramos James J. Gonzales, Ii 	- 	- 	21.08 	10.40 	103% 	-
2 	(9) 	nk 	Kool Kue Country 	3 	56
	bL 	Esgar Ramirez Roberto Sanchez 	- 	- 	5.60 	7 	−27% 	-
3 	(10) 	2 	Full Battle Rattle 	3 	56.5
	bL 	Freddie L. Martinez Danny Urista 	- 	- 	14.50 	9.60 	49% 	-
4 	(7) 	ns 	Champions League 	3 	56.5
	bL 	Antonio L. Escareno Juan M. Esquivel 	- 	- 	25 	5.60 	396% 	-
5 	(4) 	hd 	Kl Wagon Master 	3 	56
	bL 	Jaime Parga Leos Harvey Baeza 	- 	- 	2.88 	5.20 	−57% 	-
6 	(2) 	¾ 	Country Kissin Chick 	3 	56
	bL 	Macario Rodriguez Martin N. Perez 	- 	- 	20 	8.70 	134% 	-
7 	(5) 	hd 	Twister In Three D 	3 	56.5
	bL 	Oscar Hernandez Salvador R. Soto 	- 	- 	42 	8.80 	399% 	-
8 	(8) 	1½ 	Run Dj Run 	3 	56
	b 	Oscar Ortega D. David Meridyth 	- 	- 	42 	10.20 	323% 	-
9 	(1) 	½ 	Action Dasher 	3 	56
	L 	Flavio Lozano Larry Chavez 	- 	- 	25 	9.30 	175% 	-
10 	(6) 	nk 	Thatsa Fire Chick 	3 	56
	bL 	Tanner Thedford Jackie E. Riddle 	- 	- 	55.07 	10.80 	424% 	-
10 Ran, Winning Time: 17.16s
Betfair SP Overround/Underround: 84%

Code:


http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/240312/Sunland_Park-US-SUN/1310

This is a prime example how an 84% market can still favour a layer.

The two favourites were a total of 84% less than the tote price!
If one is laying to payout the same figure on all horses in the market, one loses a massive 16% of the total outlay.

If one lays to liability, the greatest liability is on the first then second favourites, the rest should be winners. Given that they are 84% less than tote price, you cannot help but win.

As I lay only part of the field, which means I am laying the favourites and backing the longshots (effectively), I got 103% better than the tote price on the winner plus 84% less than the tote on the losers.

This is not a one off....

Code:


Here is the reverse, a 184% market:
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/240312/Sunland_Park-US-SUN/1400

But there is still huge value both ways.

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