Actually after reading your last post, I like it.
I think it has legs, but maybe we or you need to concentrate on the price of the third favourite.
i.e. if the favourite is between $2.00 and $2.50 and the third favourite has x% strike rate in these circumstances, what is the maximum price we are able to lay that third favourite at?

I would look at price first and liability second, but I could be wrong.

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