Matt,

And this is the inherent flaw with overs unders betting / laying.
Ratings tell us what we know, fluctuations tell us what we don't in general.
One can definitely profit from overs betting, there's no argument about that, but perhaps there needs to be something incorporated into ratings which recalculates them by a factor given market information.

Because horses are not teams nor sportsmen, they are animals.

One can rate AFL or Tennis or Soccer and come up with definite odds and overlays, because in general, it is what it is.
With horses sometimes it is what it isn't!
All the stats in the world can't tell you stable opinion, or closed trial form, or negative medical issues.

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