FWIW
this is how i go about it.
1. I have designed my data capture so that it can easily be tested. Each starter holds about 300 pieces of information in its form that can be easily filtered out.
2. To sustain in this business you need a very user friendly system and approach.
3. Believe me the punting gods are very cruel and the minute you can’t be bothered and stop because you have had a bad day is the moment the big results is next in line. It has happened to me more than once where I can’t be stuffed putting the Europe night bets on only to get up in the morning and see 3 x 20-1 shots got up. It happened yesterday – near nil return in the day - $2.5k down – had a selection at Limerick – reluctantly put 120 on it and lo and behold – at 12.50AM it wins at $32.40. So to have something that works easy is imperative.
4. The results are incorporated into the data after the race has been completed. both the SP , the dividends and the beaten lengths – 0 lengths for the winner
5. Every horse race covered by Tattsbet is for the last 2 years is in the data base
6. When I have an idea I want to test I break my data into 3 data sets. I massage data set 1 as much as I like until I get a winning formula
7. I then test with absolutely no changes in data set 2. If it’s OK I go to data set3
8. I am always on the lookout for /wary of long priced winners that make it look good.
9. I want to see firstly a continued strike rate and secondly same or better POT.
10. Even after that I’ll let it run for another 6 months before I use my own money
11. I try to look where no-body else might be looking- to improve my price.
12. The all horserace average SP of the winner is around $7.80 and has been for at least the last 25 years that I can see- thus every horse in every race has some chance – by not concentrating on the obvious you improve your dividend.
13. Understanding of probability and “run of outs (‘ROO’)” is important. If you have a 12% SR a ROO of 20 is NOT uncommon.
14. Your bank needs to be about 5000 divided by your SR. so for 12% you need 5000/12 = 416x etc.

good luck every body

aussielong