Races with horses resuming from a spell and a price > $30 are races to AVOID? Fact or Fiction?

A: FACT

Can anyone be sure what a fresh horse can do? Especially young maturing horses.

You might ask, "why do this excercise, $30+ horses hardly win.."
From my limited database I believe the strike rate of horses with a BF SP of $30+ is 5% (happy to be corrected) So if we're Dutch Backing horses < BF $30, provided we can achieve a 8 -10% profit for the dutch, let's do the sums based on $100 liability:

1000 races, win 95%, equals 950 x 'say' $9 profit = $8,550 less commission = $7,994 nett. Lost 50 races (5%) = $5,000. Total nett profit $2,994 or 2.99% POT.
Now with what we can learn about races to avoid betting on, if we were able to filter out 20% of losing races our results look like this:
1000 races, win 96%, equals 960 x $9 profit = $8,640 less commission = $8,078 nett. Lost 40 (4%) = $4,000. Total nett profit $4,078 or 4.08% POT.
Our POT has increased a massive 33% for a 1% increase in strike rate or 20% less losing races!
The power of 1%, how it can make a difference.
RP

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