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Old 17th October 2013, 12:40 PM
Rinconpaul Rinconpaul is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 740
Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lord Greystoke

1. what the market values .... incorrectly

For me, the above means searching for false favourites to Lay, or for others, to seek out another horse to Back. This is usually indicated by a Fave priced outside the norm. By norm I mean a selection with a price within the average SP for the particular field size. I define average as 80% of all prices starting from the middle price and working outwards to encompass 80% of all SP's that has occurred over a three year period. Any 1st Fave outside this range is a likely false favourite. There were a number yesterday, but just two as an example were R1 Caulfield $3.90 Fave Googly Gander & R7 Murray Bridge $3.80 Fave Addiction To Rock. Both lost.

For me, the best practice is to disregard previous form entirely, and let the law of averages 'do the talkin'!
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